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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 22 August 2016

Eavex Ukraine Market Monitor: Aug 22

Eavex Capital
Low liquidity on Ukrainian stock market continues to be a reflection of the country’s risky geopolitical situation, although tensions with Russia appeared to ease somewhat last week after highly confrontational statements from the Kremlin the week before. President Poroshenko, who seems to have developed a habit of using the Russia/Donbass situation to distract from his own increasingly poor record on domestic reform, warned that matters in the Donbass could escalate and that a new incursion by the Russian army is possible. Nevertheless, US and EU leaders have said that they remain committed to defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity, implying any real Russian military moves would result in new painful economic penalties for Moscow. Meanwhile, the tensions took a toll on the hryvnia cash rate, which wobbled for the first time in half a year. In the absence of an IMF backstop for Ukraine, the currency slid 5% against the dollar and euro on the retail exchange market. The UX index finished the week higher, supported by the growth trend in CentrEnergo (CEEN). The stock added 2.8%, climbing above UAH 8 level. The UX index edged up 0.9% to 697 points. Motor Sich (MSICH) was the worst performing blue chip, falling 5.6% to UAH 1777 per share. DonbasEnergo (DOEN) was essentially flat, inching up 0.4% to UAH 12.70. London-listed Ferrexpo (FXPO) picked up 5.8% to close at GBp 77.75, adding to its massive rally over the preceding two weeks. MHP (MHPC) lost 4.0%, ending at USD 9.40 after the company posted its 2Q financial results, which were largely in line with expectations. In Warsaw trading, Kernel (KER) shed 3.0% to close at PLN 57.70 while Astarta (AST) inched up 0.2% to PLN 49.50. Beaten-down issue Agroton (AGT) saw a trade at PLN 2.30, representing a jump of 90% since the start of the month. On the official interbank market, hryvnia weakened by 1.1% against the dollar to close at 25.30 UAH/USD on Friday (Aug 19). However, on the cash market, which tends to front-run the interbank trend, the currency’s loss exceeded 5% for the week, with the dollar sell rate ending at UAH 26.20.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
-
Poroshenko Says Income Declarations to be Operational by Aug 31
- Manafort Ousted from Trump Campaign Over Ukraine Ties
- Ukraine’s 2Q Economic Growth Comes in Above Expectations

STOCKS IN THE NEWS
-
MHP’s 2Q EBITDA Steady at USD 146mn Despite 7% Revenue Dip
- UkrNafta Announces Sept 15 Shareholder Meeting

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, [email protected]
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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