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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 27 March 2017

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukraine’s IMF program was in the spotlight early last week after the Washington-based lender abruptly postponed its approval of the next loan tranche payout. The decision looked like a slap in the face to President Poroshenko over his surprising plan to impose an official blockade of the occupied Donbass territories, a move that could violate the Minsk peace agreement. The IMF said it needed time to evaluate consequences of the blockade on Ukraine’s economy. In important equity market news, Parliament approved a controversial law on the so-called “squeeze-out”, when a majority shareholder with a 95%+ stake has the right to purchase all the remaining free float.  

The UX added 3.5% to close at 968 points, with almost all of the gain coming from Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL), which jumped 20% to 19.50 kopecks. The stock was lifted by an announcement of the bank’s intention to pay a dividend of 5.90 kopecks per share; the shareholder meeting to approve the payout is scheduled on Apr 25. At the current price BAVL’s potential dividend yield is 30%. On the downside, low-liquidity index member DonbasEnergo (DOEN) fell 2.9% to UAH 11.85 after the company said it has lost all control over its main asset, the Starobeshevo thermal power plant located on separatist-occupied territory.

In London, poultry producer MHP (MHPC) broke out of its trading range to reach USD 10 per share, although probably only on a temporary basis until the dividend ex-rights date passes. The stock rose by 5.3% for the week after the company announced a dividend of 75 cents per share. Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) slipped 2.7% to PLN 72.70.

On the currency front, the hryvnia started to feel the pain from a worsening trade balance as a result of the Donbass blockade, weakening by 1.0% to 27.16 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

-  NBU: Donbass Trade Blockade to Cost Ukraine 1% of GDP

Industrial Output Down 4.6% YoY in February Amid Donbass Blockade

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

-  Ferrexpo Raises Full-Year EBITDA by 20% to USD 375mn, Beats Expectations


full report

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Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua



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