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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 30 October 2017

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed stocks were on the rise last week as the previous week’s political protests mostly dissipated and the National Bank upgraded its forecast for the country’s economic recovery. The NBU said it now expects GDP growth for 2017 to come in at 2.2% YoY, a notable increase from the previous 1.6% projection. The NBU left its forecast for 2018 GDP growth at 3.2%. The Ukrainian economy grew by 2.3% in 2016 and nominal GDP was UAH 2.38tn (USD 93bn).

The UX index added 1.7% to close at 1255 points. Motor Sich (MSICH) gained 3.6%, climbing above the UAH 3000 level and finishing at UAH 3036 after the company reported third-quarter earnings which fell in line with expectations. CentrEnergo (CEEN) picked up 0.4% to UAH 11.20, also after 3Q17 results which confirmed the company’s solid fundamentals. UkrNafta (UNAF) was little-changed at UAH 143 per share ahead of the 3Q earnings report due out this week. Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL), which is also due to release its results, advanced by 2.3% to 29.10 kopecks.

London-listed iron ore exporter Ferrexpo (FXPO) continued its recent local down-trend, dropping 6.0% to GBp 256 per share, while poultry giant MHP (MHPC) rose 3.1% to USD 11.65 after the company announced a plan to acquire a third production facility in Europe.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, top liquid name Kernel (KER) finally reversed its five-month losing streak, rebounding by 6.5% to PLN 51.47 after reports that the company’s management has pounced on the low stock price to buy up shares. Low-liquidity troubled issue Milkiland (MLK) was unchanged at PLN 1.50 after the company managed to restructure its debt to one of its Ukrainian lenders. Once a promising agro issue, Milkiland has lost 90% of its value from 5 years ago.

The hryvnia came back under devaluation pressure amid the understanding that Ukraine’s IMF program is on hold indefinitely due to the government’s policy of freezing energy tariffs. The currency lost 1.2% against the dollar to close at 26.87 UAH/USD. The NBU said it was selling hard currencies from its reserves. 

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

-  Industrial Output Slips 0.3% YoY in September Amid Electricity Contraction

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

-  Kernel Targets to Achieve EBITDA of USD 500mn by 2021

-  CentrEnergo Posts Modest 3Q Profit of 20 Kopecks per Share

-  Motor Sich’s 3Q Profit Down 52% YoY But Still Up 37% for 9M17


full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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