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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 22 October 2018

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed Ukrainian stocks finished higher last week after the adoption of the 2019 national budget in the first (preliminary) reading. The bill proposes a deficit of 2.3% of GDP and is based on consumer inflation forecast of 7.4%. Parliament passed a bill in the first reading that establishes medium-term national budget planning for the country. The document should help to provide more confidence in the government’s debt servicing strategy.

The UX index rose 1.8% to 1721 points, extending its winning streak to five consecutive weeks. CentrEnergo (CEEN) remained in the spotlight, adding 2.6% to close at UAH 17.25 per share. The State Property Fund has not announced the date for CentrEnergo’s privatization auction, but the starting price for the state’s 78% stake in the company has been set at UAH 5.98bn, implying a valuation of UAH 20.70 per share.

UkrNafta (UNAF) continued to climb higher on expectations of impressive 3Q18 earnings results thanks to the global oil rally. The stock gained 1.3% to end at UAH 115. We forecast that UkrNafta will post a net profit of UAH 800mn for 3Q18 alone, which translates into UAH 15 per share. Top financial name Raiffaisen Bank Aval (BAVL) is also expected to deliver a strong quarterly report. We forecast that the bank’s 3Q18 net profit per share will be close to 2 kopecks. The stock inched up by 0.9% last week to 33.40 kopecks in light activity.

In London trading, Ukraine-focused natural gas exploration and production company Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) surged 35% to GBp 56.00 per share without a clear growth driver. We suspect that the company could be an acquisition target by an as-yet undisclosed gas industry player. The stock has skyrocketed by almost 10x after starting the year in single digits. Meanwhile, Ferrexpo (FXPO) slipped 3.8% to GBp 218 over the week.

Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) was inactive, remaining at PLN 51.00 per share ahead of the company’s annual report released today (Oct 22).

On the currency front, the hryvnia gave back 0.7% to 28.14 UAH/USD after strengthening moderately against the dollar over the previous two weeks.


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full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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