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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 22 October 2018

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed Ukrainian stocks finished higher last week after the adoption of the 2019 national budget in the first (preliminary) reading. The bill proposes a deficit of 2.3% of GDP and is based on consumer inflation forecast of 7.4%. Parliament passed a bill in the first reading that establishes medium-term national budget planning for the country. The document should help to provide more confidence in the government’s debt servicing strategy.

The UX index rose 1.8% to 1721 points, extending its winning streak to five consecutive weeks. CentrEnergo (CEEN) remained in the spotlight, adding 2.6% to close at UAH 17.25 per share. The State Property Fund has not announced the date for CentrEnergo’s privatization auction, but the starting price for the state’s 78% stake in the company has been set at UAH 5.98bn, implying a valuation of UAH 20.70 per share.

UkrNafta (UNAF) continued to climb higher on expectations of impressive 3Q18 earnings results thanks to the global oil rally. The stock gained 1.3% to end at UAH 115. We forecast that UkrNafta will post a net profit of UAH 800mn for 3Q18 alone, which translates into UAH 15 per share. Top financial name Raiffaisen Bank Aval (BAVL) is also expected to deliver a strong quarterly report. We forecast that the bank’s 3Q18 net profit per share will be close to 2 kopecks. The stock inched up by 0.9% last week to 33.40 kopecks in light activity.

In London trading, Ukraine-focused natural gas exploration and production company Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) surged 35% to GBp 56.00 per share without a clear growth driver. We suspect that the company could be an acquisition target by an as-yet undisclosed gas industry player. The stock has skyrocketed by almost 10x after starting the year in single digits. Meanwhile, Ferrexpo (FXPO) slipped 3.8% to GBp 218 over the week.

Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) was inactive, remaining at PLN 51.00 per share ahead of the company’s annual report released today (Oct 22).

On the currency front, the hryvnia gave back 0.7% to 28.14 UAH/USD after strengthening moderately against the dollar over the previous two weeks.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Trump Says US Pulling Out of Nuclear Treaty with Russia

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

MHP Reports 20% YoY Sales Rise for 3Q Due To Low Comparison Base

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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