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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 14 January 2019

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Most Ukrainian blue chips finished higher last week, helped by positive sentiments on global financial markets. Stocks were on the rise worldwide as worries over the lack of a resolution to the US-China trade fight were offset by an assurance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the US central bank is ready to be flexible on interest rates.

In Ukraine related news, Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak claimed that NATO representatives have changed their positions on Ukraine’s accession to the alliance, and noted comprehensive assistance received by Ukraine from the bloc. Poltorak said NATO is considering four countries as potential members: Macedonia, Bosnia, Georgia and Ukraine. In our view, this is simply political posturing by President Poroshenko’s team ahead of the presidential election, and Ukraine has no chance to join NATO in the foreseeable future.

Kyiv-listed financial issue Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) remained on the growth path, adding 0.6% to 34.50 kopecks. In the utility sector, DonbasEnergo (DOEN) surprised with a 5.8% gain to UAH 32.65 per share. We assume that the stock was lifted by expectations that the company will pay a substantial dividend from FY18 profit. As we reported earlier, DonbasEnergo posted a net profit of UAH 540mn in 9M18, which translates into UAH 22.83 per share. CentrEnergo (CEEN) added 2.3% over the week to close at UAH 14.45.

In London trading, Ferrexpo (FXPO) advanced by 1.5% to GBp 204 per share while Regal Petroleum (RPT) dropped by 14% to GBp 50.75 after a sharp rise over preceding week. In Warsaw, Kernel (KER) slipped 0.7% to PLN 49.00 per share; the stock has stayed very close to the PLN 50 level for the last several months.

On the currency front, the hryvnia fell 0.8% against the dollar to close at 28.03 UAH/USD. News that Ukraine’s foreign currency reserves rose back above the USD 20bn level for the first time in 5 years appeared not to impact the market.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- New Ukrainian Church Enjoys Smooth First Week of Existence

- Ukraine to Lift Some Capital Controls as Forex Reserves Rise to 5-Year High of USD 20.8bn

- Ukraine Full-Year 2018 Inflation Comes In at 9.8%

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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