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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 4 March 2019

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Trading in Kyiv-listed Ukrainian equities remained inactive as both local and foreign investors are concerned that an irresponsible populist could win the upcoming presidential election. President Poroshenko, who is widely preferred by the business community, is facing a tough task to win re-election; only one president has won re-election in Ukraine since independence in 1991. Later this month voters will have 44 candidates to pick from, with as many as five possibly polling above 10 percent, before a likely Apr 21 runoff round. A recent survey reported that 82% of Ukrainians mistrust parliament and 71% feel the same way about Poroshenko.

In individual stocks, there was a bombshell news from UkrNafta (UNAF) that the company is going to ask shareholders’ permission to sign a large deal with state-owned NaftoGaz regarding the sale of long-disputed natural gas inventories. We think that this could be the needed political deal between UkrNafta and the government which would include the repayment of UkrNafta’s tax debt. A special UkrNafta shareholders meeting has been scheduled for Mar 28. The stock had a positive reaction to the news, jumping 9.5% to UAH 133 per share. Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) edged down 0.3% to 35.8 kopecks and CentrEnergo (CEEN) lost 4.0% to UAH 13.45 on expectations of unimpressive 4Q18 financial results.

In London, Ferrexpo (FXPO) declined 2.1% to GBp 264 and MHP (MHPC) dropped by 3.5% to UAH 11.00. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Kernel (KER) added 0.6% to PLN 49.00 and sporadically-traded sugar producer Astarta (AST) advanced by 20% to PLN 32.60.

On the interbank currency market, the hryvnia picked up a gain of 0.7% against the dollar over the week to close at 26.84 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Poroshenko, Grytsenko Campaigns Trade Insults as Sadoviy Withdraws

- Ukraine’s January Industrial Output Down 3.3% YoY

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

Kernel’s Oct-Dec EBITDA Jumps 70% YoY on 2.1x Surge in Revenue

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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