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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 30 September 2019

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed equities were moderately higher for the week, with quotes edging up after the IMF mission’s representatives who worked in Ukraine during Sept 12-26 confirmed discussions on a new cooperation program. The mission announced that Ukraine managed to improve its fiscal and monetary policies, which resulted in a sharp reduction in the country’s external and internal imbalances. The overall fiscal deficit has been limited to just above 2% of GDP in the last two years and is expected to remain at the same level this year. The energy sector’s quasi-fiscal deficit has been sharply reduced, which should be viewed as a major accomplishment of the post-EuroMaidan governments.

The PFTS index climbed by 0.6% to 525 points. UkrNafta (UNAF) added the most points to the gauge, advancing by 4.0% to UAH 152 per share. The company reported that its daily average oil output grew by 2.0% MoM and 4.3% YoY in August. CentrEnergo (CEEN) was also on the rise, adding 1.9% to UAH 10.50, while Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) declined by 1.6% to settle at 30 kopecks on the nose.

In London trading there was a notable drop in iron ore producer Ferrexpo (FXPO) after the company’s CEO and majority owner Constantine Zhevago was summoned by Ukrainian law enforcement for questioning regarding the bankruptcy of his Finance&Credit Bank back in 2015. On the upside, MHP (MHPC) edged higher by 0.7% to USD 9.00 after the company unveiled a strategy to increase its poultry output by 20% in the next few years.

Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) rose by 2.7% to PLN 44.45 while sugar producer Astarta (AST) slid 8.9% to PLN 20.40 on concerns regarding low soft-commodity prices.

On the interbank currency market, the hryvnia saw some volatility but ultimately gained another 1.2% to close at 24.12 UAH/USD, another fresh 3-year high. Market players believe that the large supply of foreign currencies in recent weeks has come from investors and banks who sold forex in order to purchase Ukrainian government UAH-denominated bonds.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Kyiv Hit With Resignations of Volker, Danyliuk as Zelenskiy Visits US

- Ukraine’s Industrial Output Drops by 1.7% YoY in August

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

MHP Forecasts EBITDA of USD 450mn for FY19

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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