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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 10 March 2020

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukrainian equities listed in Kyiv were unaffected by the corona-virus panic on international markets on Monday (Mar 9), as domestic trading platforms were closed due to the local Women’s Day holiday. Last week, stocks remained in a low volatility mode amid dry liquidity on the both the Ukrainian Exchange and PFTS Exchange.

In domestic political developments, President Zelenskiy reshuffled the government, forcing Oleksiy Honcharuk to resign as prime minister after only 6 months in office, and appointing former Ivano-Frankivsk provincial governor Dennis Shmygal in his place. Prosecutor General Ruslan Ryaboshapka was also fired by Parliament at Zelenskiy’s direction. Both events were perceived as attempts by Zelenskiy to shore up his own sliding approval rating, which is down from 73% to 52% in the last two months, according to polling conducted by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The most actively traded issue, Raiffaisen Bank Aval (BAVL), declined by 1.8% to 37.30 kopecks, and UkrNafta (UNAF) shed 3.2% to UAH 153 per share.

Shares of state-owned CentrEnergo (CEEN) decreased by 3.6% to UAH 8.53 as the government’s newly appointed management was still unable to take control over the company due to a controversial court decision saying that the State Property Fund has not agreed the new CEO with the supervisory board.

London-listed Ukrainian equities were lower, with Ferrexpo (FXPO) falling 5.4% to GBp 123 and JKX Oil&Gas (JKX) edged down 1.0% to GBp 20.00 per share. The less liquid MHP (MHP) plunged 22% to USD 6.20, a fresh local minimum for the issue.

In Warsaw trading, Kernel (KER) slipped 9.6% to PLN 37.05 and Agroton (AGT) fell by 10% to PLN 2.86.

The hryvnia lost 2.9% against the dollar since last Monday, approaching the psychological support level of 25.50 UAH/USD. The national currency’s current rate is 25.40 UAH/USD. The hryvnia showed no positive reaction to news that the NBU’s forex reserves grew by USD 300mn to USD 26.6bn last month. Meanwhile, the National Bank is expected to announce its decision on its main refinancing rate, which currently stands at 11.00%, on Mar 12; we are expecting another large cut of 150 bps to 9.50%.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Zelenskiy’s Government Shake-Up Appears to Favor Akhmetov

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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