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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed stocks finished mixed last week after the government strongly implied that the quarantine measures in Ukraine will be extended beyond the current Apr 24 expiration date. Meanwhile, only around 3,500 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the country, which is the lowest per capita rate in Europe. Ukraine is less dependent on international tourism and production chains than many other countries, meaning that the worsening global economic situation could be less damaging to the country than the 2008-09 financial meltdown.

In individual blue chip names, Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) gained a solid 6.3% to 34.00 kopecks. On the downside, DonbassEnergo (DOEN) dropped by 3.0% to UAH 21.60 after the company admitted high risks of non-payments from its electricity consumers under direct contracts. CentrEnergo (CEEN) was unchanged at UAH 7.25. Quotes for UkrNafta (UNAF) were also flat despite the failure to close the company’s large natural gas compensation deal with its state-owned parent group NaftoGaz; the deal was postponed to August. UNAF shares had an indicative un-traded price of UAH 135 last week.

Ukrainian companies listed abroad saw firm gains in line with the recovery on major European bourses. Iron ore producer Ferrexpo (FXPO) surged by 22% to GBp 143 and MHP (MHPC) advanced by 4.9% to USD 6.40. Kernel (KER) shot up by 14% to PLN 40.75 while Astarta (AST) inched up by only 0.4% to PLN 11.65.

On the currency market, the hryvnia added 1.3% against the dollar to close at 27.10 UAH/USD amid the drying up of hryvnia cash flow during the economic shutdown. The National Bank reported that its foreign reserves slumped by 7.8% to USD 24.9bn in March after USD 2.2bn were spent to support the national currency on the interbank market during intense speculative attacks at the beginning of the quarantine. Despite the large outflow, the NBU reserves still cover 3.7 months of future imports.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine to Extend Quarantine Despite Lowest COVID Rate in Europe

- March Inflation Comes in at 2.3% YoY, Not Yet Reflecting Quarantine Shock

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- UkrNafta Unloads Oil at USD 22/bbl After Failing to Sell Above USD 40 During Feb/Mar



full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua
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