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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 18 May 2020

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed equities were little-changed last week despite clearly positive sentiments among traders after Parliament adopted the so-called banking bill, which was a precondition for a new support program from the IMF. Ukrainian officials now expect that the first loan tranche of near USD 1.7bn from the deal could arrive before the end of the month. The government is hoping to get USD 3.5bn from the IMF this year, which will help to cover part of the widening national budget deficit, now estimated at 8% of GDP.

In macroeconomic data, UkrStat said that Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 1.5% YoY in 1Q20, which is roughly in line with our estimates, as only the last two weeks of the quarter were affected by the COVID crisis. The seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.8% on a quarterly basis in 1Q20. The 2Q GDP decline is expected to be well into double digits.

Among local blue chips, CentrEnergo (CEEN) and Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) were flat at UAH 7.50 and 31.00 kopecks respectively, while DonbasEnergo (DOEN) edged down by 0.7% to UAH 19.76 per share.

In London trading, iron ore producer Ferrexpo (FXPO) picked up 0.8% to close at GBp 137 while MHP (MHPC) fell 3.3% to USD 5.80.

In Warsaw, Kernel (KER) slipped 1.2% to PLN 38.45. On the upside, Astarta (AST) shot up by 18% to PLN 13.80 after the company’s CEO and large shareholder Viktor Ivanchik announced development plans for Astarta in an interview with NV Business Magazine.

On the currency front, the hryvnia gained 0.8% to close at 26.63 UAH/USD. There were reports from traders that NaftoGaz sold as much as USD 500mn during the week, flooding the interbank market with forex.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine Following EU Countries in Gradually Re-Opening Economy

- Ukraine Comfortably Passes Banking Bill Required for IMF Program

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- UkrNafta Reports 1Q20 Net Loss of UAH 853mn after Failing to Sell Output

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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