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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 13 July 2020

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukrainian blue chips were mostly higher last week, with the recently-renewed UX index benchmark demonstrating a recovery of 2.0% to close at 1282 points on Jul 10 after a sharp drop seen over the preceding week. Quotes for CentrEnergo (CEEN) rebounded by 5.9% to UAH 5.40 on information that the country’s largest coal producer DTEK has offered the state company a reasonable-looking base coal price of UAH 1650 per tonne (USD 61/tonne). However, the two sides are still in talks regarding terms of payment and potential supply volumes. Raiffeisen Aval (BAVL) rose 3.9% to 33.25 kopecks while UkrNafta (UNAF) slipped by 1.3% to UAH 118 per share.

Meanwhile, in fresh macro data, the Economics Ministry estimated that Ukraine’s economy contracted by 5.9% in January-May due to the negative impact of the worldwide spread of COVID-19.

Ukrainian companies listed in London had a mixed performance, with Ferrexpo (FXPO) adding 6.5% to GBp 179 while MHP (MHPC) corrected by 1.5% to USD 6.54. Natural gas producer Enwell Energy (ENW), formerly Regal Petroleum, was unchanged at GBp 13.80 per share. The other traded private E&P company with assets in Ukraine, JKX Oil&Gas (JKX), fell 4.1% after releasing an unimpressive operational update. The company’s overall gas extraction dropped by 10% QoQ to just below 10,000 barrel of oil equivalents per day in the second quarter of this year.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Kernel (KER) edged up by 0.4% to PLN 41.35 while Astarta (AST) dropped by 3.9% to close at PLN 15.90.

On the currency front, the hryvnia stabilized at 27.00 UAH/USD on the nose, gaining 0.5% for the week while showing no immediate reaction to President Zelenskiy’s statement that his government wants the hryvnia to be 10-12% weaker. The National Bank reported a massive increase in the country’s foreign currency reserves of USD 3.1bn in June after the government received a USD 2.1bn loan installment from the IMF; the NBU said it also managed to purchase an enormous net volume of USD 1.16bn in forex from the interbank market during the month. The reserves now stand at USD 28.5bn, their highest level in more than 7 years.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Zelenskiy Says Higher Inflation, Weaker Hryvnia Needed to Fulfill Budget

- Ukraine Inflation Stays Low but Rises to 2.4% YoY in June from 1.7% in May

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- Ferrexpo Raises Iron Ore Output by 4.6% in 1H20 on Strong 2Q

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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