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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 9 November 2020

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukrainian equities listed in Kyiv and abroad were on the rise last week as traders were encouraged by Joseph Biden’s victory in the US presidential race. Biden has been to Ukraine numerous times in his previous capacity as vice president, and there are expectations that his policy towards the country will be much more friendly compared to Kyiv-Washington relations under Donald Trump.

In fresh macro statistics, the Economics Ministry said that GDP dropped by 3.6% YoY in 3Q20 according to preliminary estimates, bringing the 9M20 drop to 5.5% YoY.

The UX index jumped by 5.2% for the week to close at 1379 points on Friday (Nov 6). Although UkrNafta reported huge net losses for 3Q20, the stock surprisingly advanced by 7.0% to UAH 138. We attribute this performance to buying momentum caused by the statement from NaftoGaz CEO Andriy Kobolev that NaftoGaz needs to consolidate its ownership in UkrNafta. Currently, NaftoGaz owns a 50%+1 share in UkrNafta and is holding talks with major private shareholders proposing to split up UkrNafta’s assets into separate oil and gas divisions.

In other blue chips, CentrEnergo (CEEN) added a solid 9.3% to UAH 5.90, while quotes for Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) were flat at 37.00 kopecks. In second-tier stocks, Krukiv Wagon (KVBZ) surged by 15% to UAH 19.00 despite the company posting an unimpressive net profit of UAH 129mn for 9M20, implying EPS of UAH 1.12.

In London trading, Ferrexpo (FXPO) rose 5.3% to close at GBp 200 on the nose and MHP (MHPC) edged up by 0.7% to USD 5.54.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Kernel (KER) climbed 2.2% to PLN 39.35 while Astarta (AST) saw a massive gain of 28% to PLN 23.30.

The hryvnia moved up by 1.3% to 28.15 UAH/USD amid the broad weakness of the US dollar against other currencies. The National Bank reported last week that its foreign currency reserves declined by USD 400mn to USD 26.1bn in October. It is estimated that the reserves currently cover 4.4-months of future imports, which indicates a comfortable level.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Zelenskiy Quick to Congratulate Biden After Narrow Victory Over Trump

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- UkrNafta Posts 3Q Loss of UAH 495mn As Crude Price Remains Low

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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