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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 22 March 2021

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

It was a mixed performance for the UX index blue chips last week, with individual corporate stories continuing to be in traders’ focus. In particular, Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) announced that it will distribute 50% of its FY20 net profit as a dividend, far lower than what was expected. Although this still implies a solid 3.31 kopeck dividend per share, the bank disappointed minority investors; we had projected a 5.96 kopeck dividend. The BAVL stock had a quite muted reaction to the dividend announcement, sitting essentially unchanged at bid/ask of 46.00/49.50 kopecks. Quotes for UkrNafta (UNAF) advanced by 5.3% to UAH 221 and CentrEnergo (CEEN) rose by 3.4% to UAH 9.00. On the downside, TurboAtom (TATM) lost 3.5% to end at UAH 8.20.

There was little clarity on the situation regarding Motor Sich’s (MSICH) nationalization. No mechanism of compensation for existing shareholders was announced after the Kyiv District Court arrested 100% of the shares of Motor Sich and appointed a special state agency to manage the company. The text of the court ruling has not been published yet.

In London trading, Ferrexpo (FXPO) surged by 10% to GBp 390 after the company proposed an enormous dividend of 39.6 US cents per share. Therefore, the company’s total dividend from FY20 profit will be 72.6 US cents, implying a dividend yield of 13% taking into account the stock’s current price. MHP (MHPC) dropped by 8.2% to USD 5.62 ahead of the company’s earnings report for the 4Q20. We forecast that MHP will report a net loss of USD 41mn for the quarter, bringing its net loss for the full year to USD 150mn.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Agroton (AGT) decreased by 1.3% to PLN 6.12 while Kernel (KER) picked up 0.9% to close at PLN 55.90.

On the interbank currency market, the hryvnia continued its run of relative stability since the start of the year, closing at 27.72 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Kyiv Enters New Quarantine Amid COVID 3rd Wave

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- Ferrexpo Announces Massive 39-Cent Dividend after Posting USD 635mn Net Profit for FY20

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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