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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 19 April 2021

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukraine-related news flow last week was dominated by the military threat from Russia, as the total size of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border reached 100,000 soldiers, according to the National Security & Defense Council (RNBO) estimates. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron urged Moscow to withdraw the additional troops it has amassed on its border with Ukraine and in occupied Crimea over recent weeks. In its turn, Moscow announced on Friday (Apr 16) that it intends to shut down areas of the Black Sea to foreign military vessels for the next six months as it conducts naval maneuvers in the area. Nevertheless, at this point the situation looks under control but security conditions on the border may change with little or no notice.

Kyiv-listed stocks were lower for the week, with the UX index losing 2.1% to 1796 points. UkrNafta was in the spotlight again, slumping 11% to UAH 230 per share after unpleasant information that the company has no intention to pay a dividend from its large net profit of UAH 4.2bn earned in 2020. In other UX index components, Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) shed 2.2% to 45.00 kopecks and CentrEnergo (CEEN) declined by 1.1% to UAH 9.00 per share.

In London trading, poultry producer MHP (MHPC) fell 3.8% to USD 5.12, the stock’s lowest closing price in a decade, after the company provided a worse than anticipated operational update for 1Q21. Meanwhile, Ferrexpo (FXPO) gained 6.3% to GBp 387.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Kernel (KER) dropped by 3.4% to PLN 51.80 while Agroton (AGT) rebounded by 5.7% to PLN 6.28.

On the currency front, the hryvnia weakened by 0.3% to close at 28 UAH/USD on the nose. The National Bank did not intervene on the interbank market during the week. The regulator’s decision to raise its key refinancing rate from 6.5% to 7.5% on Thursday (Apr 15) had a more or less neutral influence on the hryvnia but sent a clearly negative signal for the domestic bond market.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- US Sanctions Russian Sovereign Debt as West Closes Ranks Against Kremlin

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- UkrNafta Meets Expectations with UAH 4.3bn Net Profit for FY20

- MHP’s Poultry Sales Volume Declines by 2% YoY in 1Q21

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua



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