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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 22 June 2021

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv’s UX index saw a sharp correction last week, falling 6.1% to 1820 points due to a 17% drop in UkrNafta (UNAF) after a UAH 35.62 dividend was cut from the price. The ex-rights date for the dividend was Jun 11, and therefore the UNAF stock dropped on Monday (Jun 14) to reflect the ex-rights date passage. In other local blue chips, Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) declined by 2.3% to 42.50 kopecks while DonbasEnergo (DOEN) rebounded further by 5.3% to UAH 20.00 after the slump seen earlier this month. CentrEnergo (CEEN) lost 6.2% to UAH 9.10 as the company’s privatization was delayed once again. The State Property Fund said it would try to hold the auction for the government’s 78% stake in CentrEnergo next March.

In major economic events, The National Bank decided to hold its key refinancing rate steady at 7.5% despite consumer inflation that accelerated to 9.5% in May. Our expectation of no rate hike by the monetary policy board proved correct, although most market analysts had predicted an increase in the key rate by 50-100 bps. The next decision on the policy rate will be on Jul 22 and there is a high probability that the rate will be raised to 8.0%.

Ukrainian companies listed in London finished mixed last week, with Ferrexpo (FXPO) falling 10% to GBp 416 while MHP (MHPC) rose 3.4% to USD 6.14. JKX Oil&Gas (JKX), which produces most of its output in Ukraine, advanced by 3.0% to GBp 25.00 per share. However, the JKX stock remains down by 15% since the start of the year.

In Warsaw, Kernel (KER) edged down by 1.2% to PLN 56.80 while Agroton (AGT) was flat at PLN 8.50 and Astarta (AST) saw a moderate gain of 1.4% to PLN 52.20 after a report that the company has begun its stock buy-back drive by purchasing 12,000 shares from the market at the average price of PLN 50.60.

On the interbank currency market, the hryvnia devalued by 1.0% to 27.30 UAH/USD after the dollar rallied against major world currencies, notching its largest two-day gain of the year after US central bank officials brought forward the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve’s first post-COVID interest rate rise. The Fed said it will also reduce its USD 120bn-a-month “quantitative easing” bond purchases, which have been supporting financial markets since March 2020.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Biden-Putin Summit Resets US-Russian Relations

- UkrAvtodor Issues USD 700mn State Guaranteed Eurobonds at 6.25%

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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