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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 26 July 2021

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Quotes for Kyiv-listed equities declined last week ahead of the earnings season, which is unlikely to show successful results for domestic businesses. Companies listed on the Ukrainian Exchange do not announce the exact timing of when they unveil their P&L statements, but we assume that the most of the financials will arrive by Jul 30.

UkrNafta (UNAF) fell 8.0% to UAH 276 despite bright expectations for the company’s 2Q profit. We forecast that UkrNafta will post UAH 600mn in net profit for 2Q21, implying an EPS of UAH 11 for the quarter. In contrast, we project that Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) will report an unimpressive net profit for 2Q with an EPS of 1.1 kopecks. The BAVL stock dropped by 4.2% last week to close at 43.10 kopecks. The situation around CentrEnergo (CEEN) remains completely unclear. On the one hand, the company got the boost in February when new management was appointed. On the other hand, pricing for thermal electricity has been highly volatile in the recent months, making any predictions regarding CentrEnergo’s financial results merely speculative. The company has openly complained that electricity traders are violating the contracts concluded on the Energy Exchange. Moreover, CentrEnergo said that it is having trouble securing enough coal in storage for the next winter season. The CEEN stock was trading in the range of UAH 9.20-9.80 over the week, and closed at UAH 9.60 (+1.1%).

In London trading, poultry producer MHP (MHPC) slipped by 5.0% to USD 5.30 after the company’s 2Q operational update failed to impress investors. Although MHP managed to deliver poultry sales volume growth of 6% YoY in the period, the company’s sunflower oil segment’s sales plunged by 57% YoY. Taking into account MHP’s vertical integration with near 355,000 hectares of land bank, a recent rise in meat prices should lead to a higher profit for the entire MHP value chain. The company is due to release its 2Q21 earnings results on Sept 7.

In Warsaw, Kernel (KER) shed 3.3% to PLN 50.10 and Agroton (AGT) inched down by 0.2% to PLN 8.08.

The hryvnia strengthened by 0.7% to 27.06 UAH/USD after the Finance Ministry raised USD 500mn through an additional Eurobond issue of 8-year notes at 6.3%.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine Continues to Complain About Nord Stream as Zelensky’s US Visit Set for Aug 30

- Industrial Production Recovery Slows to 1.1% YoY in June

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- MHP’s 2Q Poultry Pricing Jumps 35% YoY, Export Sales Volume Up 23% YoY

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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