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Analytics and Market news

Wednesday, 25 August 2021

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv-listed equities declined across the board last week as the domestic stock market currently lacks a flow of fresh investments to maintain the 2021 rally. The UX index lost 2.9% to 1861 points. DonbasEnergo (DOEN) was the worst performing UX index component, plunging by 23% to UAH 14.50 after information that the company was forced to shut down its thermal power plant due to problems with coal inventories. The current chaotic situation in the Ukrainian electricity sector also put some pressure on the more liquid issue, CentrEnergo (CEEN), which corrected by 2.5% to UAH 9.75. Two other key blue chips, UkrNafta (UNAF) and Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL), fell by 1.9% to UAH 265 and by 4.2% to 43.10 kopecks, respectively. The current trading week only consists of 3 days due to the Independence Day holiday on Aug 24.

In macroeconomic news, Ukrainian GDP grew by 5.4% YoY in 2Q21, coming in well below our expectation of the 7% YoY growth for the quarter. The Ukrainian VRIs (sovereign securities linked to the GDP performance) dropped by 2.1% to 113.8 cents on the dollar. Previously, the market players had anticipated that in case of robust economic recovery in Ukraine the payments under the VRIs would be significant for 2021. The VRIs pay no regular interest, but they offer payouts in years when Ukraine’s GDP growth exceeds 3%.

London-listed Ferrexpo (FXPO) slumped by 12.6% to GBp 354 as iron ore benchmark prices dropped to USD 160 per tonne, well of their early July peak of USD 215 per tonne. Poultry producer MHP (MHPC) decreased by 1.8% to USD 5.58 while Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) rose 3.6% to PLN 57.30.

On the currency market, the hryvnia edged down by 0.2% to 26.69 UAH/USD. The National Bank continued its de-facto practice of limiting appreciation of the hryvnia to less than 1% per week, purchasing USD 118mn from the interbank market to prop up the dollar.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Departing Merkel Stresses Support for Ukraine in Final Kyiv Visit

- Ukraine Shows Weak 2Q GDP Rebound of 5% YoY After 2020’s 11% Drop

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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