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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 14 February 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukraine-related news flow in Western media last week was flooded by the White House statement warning that a Russian invasion into Ukraine could happen at any time, and could begin with bombing from the air. Russia characterized such allegations as “provocative speculation”. However, most staff have been ordered to leave the US Embassy in Kyiv, and Canada is also moving its embassy staff to Lviv. Meanwhile, Kyiv does not feel like a city in crisis, as most Ukrainians believe that the neighboring country has no plans to invade.

Quotes for Kyiv-listed equities finished mixed. UkrNafta (UNAF) was the worst performing blue chip, falling 4.3% to UAH 269 ahead of the company’s third shareholder meeting in three months with the agenda to try to split UkrNafta’s assets. Two previous meetings had no quorum to decide on the issue. Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) shed 2.2% to 44 kopecks after the National Bank reported financial results of Ukrainian banks for 2021. Raiffeisen earned UAH 4.46bn (USD 178mn at the average UAH/USD exchange rate for the year), implying EPS of 7.90 kopecks, which is very near our EPS forecast of 8.00 kopecks. On the upside, CentrEnergo (CEEN) rose 1.4% to UAH 7.15.

Rising iron ore prices, which moved from USD 130 to USD 150 per share over the last two weeks, boosted quotes for London-listed Ferrexpo (FXPO) by 10.2% to GBp 284. Meanwhile, Enwell Energy (former Regal) declined by 2.3% to GBp 25.50. Poultry producer MHP (MHPC) was rather inactive, edging down by 0.9% to USD 6.48 per share.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Ukrainian agro stocks were on the rise with Kernel (KER) gaining 2.0% to PLN 55.10 and the small-cap Agroton (AGT) advancing by 11.3% to PLN 6.90.

The hryvnia inched up by 0.2% against the dollar to close at 28.06 UAH/USD, as the National Bank admitted that it had spent a hefty USD 1.51bn from its foreign reserves to support the hryvnia on the interbank market in January. The NBU’s forex reserves decreased from USD 30.9bn to USD 29.3bn last month.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine Tensions Spike Amid Deadlock over Minsk Peace Agreement

- Ukraine Headline Inflation Stays at 10.0% on Rising Commodity, Energy Prices

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua



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