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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 21 February 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Kyiv’s main equity index finished higher last week despite escalating geopolitical tensions on a big jump by heavyweight UkrNafta, with the UX index rising by 3.6% to 1774 points. The UNAF stock advanced by 22% to UAH 330 per share after the company’s asset-splitting process was once again delayed. UkrNafta held a general shareholders meeting on Feb 17 with no decision on the issue. We assume that UkrNafta’s majority shareholder NaftoGaz has not reached a final agreement on the terms of how to divide UkrNafta.

On the downside, CentrEnergo (CEEN) declined by 2.1% to UAH 7.00. Outside the UX index, Krukiv Wagon (KVBZ) shot up by 20% to UAH 24.50 after the company provided an optimistic production guideline. Krukiv Wagon’s freight railcar output grew by 6x YoY to 151 units in January.

In London trading, natural gas producer Enwell Energy (former Regal) gained 6.1% to GBp 27.10 while iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) dropped by 2.7% to GBp 277 and MHP (MHPC) declined by 2.8% to USD 6.30.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Ukrainian agro stocks were mixed amid surprisingly light activity. Kernel (KER) and Astarta (AST) decreased by 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, with the former closing at PLN 54.30. The small-cap Agroton (AGT) gained 1.4% to PLN 7.00.

The hryvnia remained vulnerable to news flow regarding a possibility of Russian military aggression against Ukraine. The hryvnia devalued by 1.3% against the dollar over the week to 28.43 UAH/USD as the National Bank spent a massive USD 500mn from the foreign reserves to prevent a larger decline. A potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be felt across global markets, from wheat and energy prices to safe-haven assets and stock markets. Four major exporters - Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania - ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions. Ukraine is projected to be the world’s third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and the fourth largest exporter of wheat.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Putin Moves to Recognize Occupied Donbass Republics

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- UkrNafta Meeting Ends Without Decision to Split Up the Company’s Assets

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua



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