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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 13 June 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

According to the National Bank’s latest survey, there are 14% of Ukrainian enterprises out of business as a result of the russian invasion of Ukraine and the domestic industrial sector faces a drop in production of 40% compared to the pre-war period. This terrible situation leads to a heavy fall in the national budget revenues prompting the government to fill the budget gap with extensive borrowings from all available sources. Currently, there is an expectation that the Finance Ministry will start to offer a much higher yield for the domestic government special UAH-denominated bonds to attract more funds. The last primary bond auction held on Jun 7 brought in only UAH 809mn in proceeds at the offered yield of 9.5% - 11.5%. Taking into account that the National Bank has raised its key monetary policy rate from 10% to 25%, we assume that the special government bond should be offered at 20%. Moreover, the rising inflation in the country, which topped 18% YoY in May, also put pressure on the UAH-denominated assets.      
Among macroeconomic statistics, the official estimates said that Ukrainian GDP dropped by 15.1% YoY in 1Q22 after a rise of 5.9% YoY seen in 4Q21. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economic contraction was a whopping 19.3% in the Jan-Mar period.
In terms of individual share price movement, London-listed Ukrainian natural gas producer Enwell Energy (former Regal) shot up by 35% to GBp 28.9. On the downside, Ferrexpo (FXPO) slipped by 6.6% to GBp 164 and Warsaw-listed Agroton (AGT) decreased by 5.7% to PLN 4.44.

On the Ukrainian stock market trading in stocks and bonds remained suspended as the country is under martial law.     

The hryvnia remained little changed at 35.3 UAH/USD on the OTC cash market.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Macron, Scholz Due in Kyiv as Zelenskiy Presses for EU Membership

- Ukraine Foreign Reserves Drop by USD 1.8bn to USD 25.1bn in May

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/support­the­armed­forces

The National Bank also opened fundraising account for Humanitarian Assistance to Ukrainians. Please see details under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/humanitarian­aid­to­ukraine


full report


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