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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 4 July 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Estimates for the damage done to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure by the russian military invasion have already exceeded USD 100 bn. Other economic losses, including unrealized economic growth, should also be added to that number, as well as abandoned investment projects, and so on. There are different estimates of how much these economic losses total: hovering from around USD 500 bn to USD 1 trillion. The war is still ongoing, and the full losses are yet to materialize fully.
russian forces now try to press their offensive deeper into eastern Ukraine after taking control of a key stronghold in the Luhansk province. The kremlin has made capturing the entire Donbas a key goal in its war in Ukraine, now in its fifth month. moscow-backed separatists in Donbas have battled Ukrainian forces since 2014 when they declared independence from Kyiv after the russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea. russia formally recognized the self-proclaimed republics days before its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Currently, there is an assessment that in the second quarter Ukraine’s GDP fell by 40% YoY as a result of the russian invasion.
Ukrainian equities listed in London and Warsaw were mostly lower last week as the country continued to suffer much from the russian invasion.
The world’s third-largest iron ore pellets exporter Ferrexpo (FXPO) slipped by 6.0% to GBp 132 per share last week as export constraints from Ukraine shake the company’s business model. Agro exporter Kernel (KER) also suffers and the KER stock fell 3.2% to PLN 19.66.
On the surprising upside, poultry maker MHP (MHPC) gained by 10% to USD 4.34.
On the Ukrainian stock market trading in stocks and bonds remained suspended as the country is under martial law.     
The hryvnia stayed almost unchanged at 35.5 UAH/USD on the OTC cash market.



- Ukrainian Exports Drop by 24% YoY to USD 22.8bn in 1H22

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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