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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 25 July 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The National Bank put on hold its key monetary policy rate at 25%, according to the Board decision unveiled on Jul 21. The regulator sees that consumer inflation in Ukraine could exceed 30% this year as the CPI has already reached 21.5% YoY in June, which was mainly the result of war-driven shocks and global price pressures. Administrative measures primarily fixing the hryvnia exchange rate and natural gas and heating tariffs remained the key instruments to curb inflation in the country. The full-scale russian invasion caused a sharp fall in economic activity in Ukraine. A third of businesses suspended their operations at the start of the war, due to physical damage and temporary occupation of whole regions, high uncertainty and risks, disruption of logistical and production chains, and forced massive migration. As a result, GDP plunged by 15% YoY in 1Q22.

In Warsaw and London trading Ukrainian stocks were on the rise for the second straight week on optimism that the prospect of grain export resumption through seaports should help Ukraines economy. Quotes for Kernel (KER) surged by 18% to PLN 28.60 and Astarta (AST) gained by 11% to PLN 26.00. Iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) rose by 14% to GBp 133 per share and MHP (MHPC) grew by 4.7% to USD 3.98. 

On the Ukrainian stock market trading in stocks and bonds remained suspended as the country is under martial law.     

The National Bank changed its official hryvnia exchange rate from 29.25 to 36.57 UAH/USD in a move to shrink the wide gap between the official and the cash hryvnia rate. Meanwhile, the OTC cash market exchange rate climbed to as high as 39.30 UAH/USD reflecting Ukraines economic challenges.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Russias Donbass Offensive Stalls as Grain Exports Resume from Odessa

- Ukraine Pushes International Creditors for Debt Freeze Up to 2024. No Writedown Asked.

full report

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Banks official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/supportthearmedforces

The National Bank also opened fundraising account for Humanitarian Assistance to Ukrainians. Please see details under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/humanitarianaidtoukraine



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