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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 1 August 2022

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukraine aims to reach a deal for a USD 15 - USD 20 bn program with the IMF before year-end to support the countrys economy amid the russian military aggression. Currently, Ukraine has a monthly fiscal shortfall of USD 5 bn and is heavily reliant on foreign financing from its Western partners.  Kyiv had already submitted its request to the IMF. A USD 20 bn program would be the second largest active loan from the IMF after Argentina. The IMFs latest loan to Ukraine was a USD 1.4 bn emergency financing support agreed in March - the equivalent of 50% of the countrys quota in the fund.

Last week, the National Bank presented its fresh macroeconomic forecasts, according to which the countrys GDP would fall by 33.4% YoY this year, and in 2023-2024 it would increase by 5.5% YoY and 4.9% YoY respectively if the seaports are reopened. The regulator said that consumer inflation would rise to 31% YoY this year (from 21.5% YoY in June), and in the next year it would be at 20.7% YoY.

Ukrainian agro names finished mixed last week. Kernel (KER) and Astarta (AST) fell by 9.0% and 7.1% respectively with the former closing at PLN 26.00. In contrast, Agroton (AGT) gained by 6.6% to PLN 4.20 and MHP (MHPC) advanced by 6.8% to USD 4.25.

Ferrexpo (FXPO) rose by 11.7% to GBp 148 amid the upward momentum for the iron ore benchmark price on the global market.

On the Ukrainian stock market trading in stocks and bonds remained suspended as the country is under martial law.     

On the OTC cash market, the hryvnia lost 4.3% to close at 41.00 UAH/USD. The official exchange rate remained at 36.57 UAH/USD.

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- MHP Decreases Export Volumes by 37% YoY in 2Q22. Total Sales Volume Declines by 23% YoY 

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Banks official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/supportthearmedforces

The National Bank also opened fundraising account for Humanitarian Assistance to Ukrainians. Please see details under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua/en/about/humanitarianaidtoukraine


full report


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