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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 10 January 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The Ukrainian Exchange index (UX) decreased by 10% YoY in 2022 failing to track a real dramatic situation on the domestic stock market. The reason behind the UX index’s poor reflection of the market was the inclusion of frozen for trading shares of Motor Sich (MSICH) into the index basket. Moreover, the UX index was not adjusted for the unprecedented obligatory transfer of all Motor Sich and UkrNafta (UNAF) shares to the government securities account for the country’s defense goals. For a comparison of the UX index performance, there was a 39% YoY drop in the russian RTS index, a 22% YoY decrease in the Polish WIG20, and a decline of 19% in the S&P500.

In individual stock movement, thermal power generator CentrEnergo (CEEN) slipped by 36% YoY from UAH 6.30 to UAH 4.00 per share as the company de-facto lost control over its Vuglegirsk Power Plant as it is now located on the occupied territory. The company has also a problem with low tariffs for electricity on the market leading to an accumulation of large operating losses. There are no official reports regarding CentrEnergo’s P&L as reports publication were postponed due to martial law in Ukraine. However, an unofficial source indicated that back in peaceful 2021 CentrEnergo had a net loss of UAH 989mn as the electricity market structure in the country remained heavily regulated with a price cap for energy producers.      

Among other UX index components, Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) stock experienced a slump from 46 kopecks to 20 kopecks over the January-October period and then recovered to a level of 30 kopecks in December. The bank was profitable in 2022 despite an assessment that up to 30% of the Ukrainian banking system corporate loan portfolio could become non-performing as a result of the war risks.

In Warsaw trading, grain and sunflower oil exported Kernel (KER) had its share price plunge of 70% from PLN 58.70 to PLN 17.50 in 2022 as the company was forced to disinvest a part of the land bank, and had many challenges with agro shipments. 

On the currency market, the UAH/USD cash rate jumped by almost 50% YoY from 27.30 to 40.80 UAH/USD in 2022. Meanwhile, the official exchange rate which is used for interbank operations grew by 34% YoY from 27.28 to 36.57 UAH/USD last year. There is a base case forecast that the average hryvnia exchange rate will be at 42.20 UAH/USD in 2023, implying a potential 13% devaluation for the Ukrainian currency this year.


- Ukrainian Exports Drop by 35% YoY to USD 44bn in 2022

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:


full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]

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