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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 17 January 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The major market indexes shot higher last week with the S&P500 advancing by 2,7% while the MSCI Emerging Market index surged by 4,3%. A positive sentiment appeared after the Labor Department said that the CPI in the US was up 6.5% YoY in December, as prices rose at their slowest pace in six months. In the wake of the inflation update, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate hike at its February meeting jumped to 95% from yesterday’s 77%. This would mark the lowest increase in the Fed’s benchmark rate since March 2022. (The US central bank issued four consecutive 0.75% rate hikes, followed by a 0.5% increase at its last meeting in December.)

Meanwhile, in Ukraine consumer inflation came at 26.6% YoY in December as the hryvnia devaluated significantly amid the war and petroleum prices jumped by 69% YoY for Ukrainians in 2022. The National Bank is keeping its key interest rate at 25% and there is a high probability that the rate will remain at this high level unless the inflation pace slows below 18% YoY.

On the Ukrainian Exchange, quotes for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) and CentrEnergo (CEEN) were flat last week at 31 kopecks and UAH 4.00 respectively.

London-listed Ferrexpo (FXPO) surged by 11% to GBp 173 spurred by an overall positive momentum on the global stock markets. In Warsaw trading, Astarta (AST) advanced by 2.3% to PLN 22.70, and Kernel (KER) edged up by 0.5% to PLN 18.58.

The hryvnia cash exchange rate remained at 40 UAH/USD. The country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 28.5bn at the beginning of the year covering 3.6 months of future imports, which is considered an appropriate relative measure of the FX reserves.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine Braces for Russian Spring Offensive as West Promises Tanks

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- Enwell Energy (former Regal) May Lose Licenses in Ukraine due to Sanctions Against Majority Owner

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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