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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 30 January 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The National Bank expects a slight increase in the real GDP of Ukraine by 0.3% this year. According to the results of 2022, the country’s economy fell by 30% YoY, while in the fourth quarter, the fall amounted to 35% YoY. The most difficult situation at the end of last year was in the metallurgy and the machinery sectors, as enterprises in these industries are very energy-intensive and were unable to adapt to the energy terror from russia. At the same time, the forecast assumes that during 2023 it will be possible to avoid significant additional destruction of the energy infrastructure, and business and the government will take effective measures to restore already destroyed capacities.

Given the already announced volumes of international aid and progress in negotiations with the IMF, the total amount of official financing to Ukraine in 2023 may exceed USD 38bn. This will make it possible to avoid emission financing of the budget deficit in 2023 and support the country’s FX reserves at a sufficient level, even in conditions of longer preservation of high security risks. It is expected that by the end of 2023, the Ukrainian FX reserves will amount to USD 27bn, compared to USD 28.5bn at the start of the year.

The National Bank continues to sell the hard currency from reserves to meet demand on the interbank market. Over the past week, the regulator’s interventions amounted to USD 664mn. Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has already sold USD 2.7bn. The increase in interventions was fully compensated by the receipt of international aid. At the meeting of the board of the NBU on monetary policy, it was decided to keep the key rate at the current level of 25%. The updated inflation forecast predicts that the consumer price index in Ukraine will decrease from 26.6% to 18.7% by the end of this year.

On the Ukrainian Exchange there was a further sharp drop in CentrEnergo (CEEN), which fell by 43% to UAH 1.7 over the week. At the beginning of the year, the CEEN stock traded at UAH 4.00.

Quotes for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) fell by 10% to 27 kopecks last week. On the upside, Kryukiv Wagon (KVBZ) rose by 2.5% to UAH 12.9.


- Scholz Firm in Refusal to Offer Ukraine Fighter Jets

- The National Bank Publishes Updated Macro Forecasts for 2023-2025

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:


full report

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Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]

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