The National Bank expects a slight increase in the real GDP of Ukraine
by 0.3% this year. According to the results of 2022, the country’s economy fell
by 30% YoY, while in the fourth quarter, the fall amounted to 35% YoY. The most
difficult situation at the end of last year was in the metallurgy and the
machinery sectors, as enterprises in these industries are very energy-intensive
and were unable to adapt to the energy terror from russia. At the same time,
the forecast assumes that during 2023 it will be possible to avoid significant
additional destruction of the energy infrastructure, and business and the
government will take effective measures to restore already destroyed
Given the already announced volumes of international aid and progress in
negotiations with the IMF, the total amount of official financing to Ukraine in
2023 may exceed USD 38bn. This will make it possible to avoid emission
financing of the budget deficit in 2023 and support the country’s FX reserves
at a sufficient level, even in conditions of longer preservation of high
security risks. It is expected that by the end of 2023, the Ukrainian FX
reserves will amount to USD 27bn, compared to USD 28.5bn at the start of the
The National Bank continues to sell the hard currency from reserves to
meet demand on the interbank market. Over the past week, the regulator’s interventions
amounted to USD 664mn. Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has
already sold USD 2.7bn. The increase in interventions was fully compensated by
the receipt of international aid. At the meeting of the board of the NBU on
monetary policy, it was decided to keep the key rate at the current level of
25%. The updated inflation forecast predicts that the consumer price index in
Ukraine will decrease from 26.6% to 18.7% by the end of this year.
On the Ukrainian Exchange there was a further sharp drop in CentrEnergo
(CEEN), which fell by 43% to UAH 1.7 over the week. At the beginning of the
year, the CEEN stock traded at UAH 4.00.
Quotes for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) fell by 10% to 27 kopecks last week.
On the upside, Kryukiv Wagon (KVBZ) rose by 2.5% to UAH 12.9.
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
- Scholz Firm in Refusal to Offer
Ukraine Fighter Jets
- The National Bank Publishes Updated Macro
Forecasts for 2023-2025
The National Bank of Ukraine has
opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:
Eavex Capital welcomes any questions
or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research,