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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 27 March 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

According to the new assessment, Ukraine’s needs for recovery and reconstruction have increased to USD 411bn. Directly this year, the country will need USD 14bn of investments for priority reconstruction and restoration. Addressing these needs will require USD 11bn in funding, in addition to what the government has already provided in the 2023 state budget. The reconstruction and restoration costs are expected to span 10 years and will combine the needs of both public and private funds.

Meanwhile, to minimize risks to Ukraine’s macro-financial stability in wartime, the National bank has been forced to update its decision, approved in May 2022, that enabled nonresidents, starting 1 April 2023, to repatriate abroad the funds invested in domestic government debt securities. Based on consultations with the IMF, the National bank has decided that it would be optimal under current conditions to ensure that foreign investors can transfer abroad the interest payments received after 1 April 2023 on domestic government debt securities. However, concerning the repatriation of principal repayments on these securities, the National bank is postponing a similar decision until a significant easing of the war and macroeconomic risks. According to rough estimates, interest repayments on domestic government debt to nonresident investors will amount to the equivalent of about USD 120mn (at the official exchange rate) by the end of the year. The estimated amount may increase if nonresident investors make additional purchases of domestic government debt securities with interest payments due after 1 April 2023. However, such transactions will not put significant pressure on Ukraine’s international reserves. The National bank expects that by allowing the repatriation of interest payments, it will incentivize nonresidents to reinvest the repaid principal and accumulated hryvnia funds into new bonds. This will help develop the government bond market and ease the risks of direct monetary financing of the budget deficit by the central bank. A share of non-resident investors in total outstanding domestic bonds is currently 3.8%. The total amount of outstanding domestic bonds is UAH 1,439bn (USD 39.3bn).

On the Ukrainian Exchange, indicative quotes for CentrEnergo (CEEN) and Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) were unchanged at UAH 4.70 and 30.5 kopecks per share.


- Russia’s Donbass Offensive Stalls, but Zelenskiy Says Ukraine Lacks Weapons to Strike Back

- Ukraine to Receive IMF Support for USD 15.6bn for Four Years

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:


full report

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Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]

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