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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 10 April 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The Ukrainian Exchange Index Committee was forced to recalculate the index last week in order to correct a technical error caused by a random deal with Kernel (KER) shares at a price of UAH 544 (PLN 64), which was approximately three times higher than the market price. As a result, the UX index was corrected by 28% to 1538 points.

Indicative quotes for CentrEnergo (CEEN) fell by 21% to UAH 3.44 after the company reported a net loss of UAH 7.2bn in 2022. On the upside, the shares of Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) performed better than the market, rising by 3.3% to 31 kopecks.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, there was a notable increase in demand for Astarta (AST) shares, which rose in price by 7.9% to PLN 26.00. Since the beginning of the year, Astarta shares have already gained 27%.

In London trading Ukrainian iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) shed by 0.6% to GBp 117 despite positive news that that company manages to improve production results for 1Q23 after the poor volumes delivered in the 4Q22 amid power supply disruptions in Ukraine.

The cash market exchange rate remained at 37.60 UAH/USD. The information that country’s foreign exchange reserves had grown to USD 31.9bn had a positive impact on the hryvnia. The current level of FX reserves is the highest since 2011. In March, reserves increased by 10% due to inflows from international partners and smaller net currency sales by the central bank and moderate foreign debt repayments. The National Bank’s net currency sales decreased last month by USD 783mn compared to February, to USD 1.67bn. The reduction in NBU intervention volumes on the interbank market allows us to assume that the regulator will continue to maintain the current fixed exchange rate of 36.57 UAH/USD in the coming months. However, we expect that in about six months, the National Bank will need to devalue the hryvnia by about 7% to 39.12 UAH/USD in order to artificially increase budget revenues in hryvnia terms from the international aid and custom duties.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Concerns Rise Over Air Defenses as Ukraine Hangs on in Bakhmut

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- CentrEnergo Reports UAH 7.2bn Net Loss for 2022, Translating to a Loss of UAH 19.34 per share

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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