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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 24 April 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

According to a recent study by the National Bank, domestic businesses in Ukraine have softened their negative expectations regarding their own business activity, while improving their inflation and exchange rate assessments. Representatives of the majority of foreign economic activity enterprises, particularly in the processing and extractive industries, expect growth in overall sales volumes. However, negative assessments for the short-term prospects remain in the construction and energy production sectors. Overall, the study concludes that Ukrainian businesses are optimistic about their future sales volumes for the first time in the last four quarters, despite other components such as financial results and investments remaining negative, despite significant improvements.

The preservation of the hryvnia exchange rate stability and the cessation of deficit budgetary emission financing in 2023 were significant factors in improving business expectations. Avoiding deficit budgetary emission financing this year is a common goal of the National Bank and the government. Considering the announced amounts of international aid for Ukraine and the activation of the internal debt market, the budget deficit must be fully financed through these two sources.

Among the shares traded on the Ukrainian Exchange, quotes for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) declined by 0.9% to 28.8 kopecks after the National Bank assumed that potential losses from the credit portfolio of banks could reach 30% this year due to the inability of some borrowers to service their obligations.

Astarta (AST) rose by another 5.5% to PLN 29.00 last week. Since the beginning of the year, Astarta has already gained by 42%. The current market capitalization of the company has reached USD 170mn. Considering that Astarta earned EUR 62mn in 9M 2022, the current market capitalization indicates the potential undervaluation of the company. Astarta is expected to release its annual financial results for the year 2022 this week, which could provide an additional boost to the company’s share price.


- Kernel Reports 61% YoY Drop in Grain Exports to 824,000 tonnes in January-March Quarter

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:


full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]

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