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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 15 May 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The Financial Stability Council at the Ministry of Finance has approved the concept of a new Strategy for the development of the financial sector, which was developed in accordance with the Memorandum of Economic Policies between Ukraine and the IMF. Among the key elements of the strategy is the assessment of banking sector stability. Based on its results, the ways to safely unwind the extraordinary measures implemented in Ukraine during the early months of the full-scale invasion, as well as priorities for resolving non-performing loans, will be determined. The share of non-performing loans (NPL) in the country’s banking sector stood at 38.8% at the end of 1Q23, increasing by 0.7 p.p. compared to 38.1% on January 1. The volume of non-performing loans increased by UAH 2 bn to UAH 434bn over the quarter. Banks continue to recognize credit losses, with provisions for loans exceeding UAH 107bn since the start of the full-scale war, accounting for over 13% of the credit portfolio that banks held at the end of February 2022. Potential losses to the loan portfolio due to the russian aggression could reach 30%. The total volume of loans in the Ukrainian banking system decreased by UAH 14.5bn or 1% to UAH 1.12 trillion (USD 31bn) in the 1Q23.

On the Ukrainian Stock Exchange, quotes for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) remained at 30 kopecks. The bank’s MCap was at UAH 492mn. The P/B ratio stands at 1.1x, which can be considered a fairly good multiple under current conditions. Raiffeisen Bank reported a net profit of about UAH 2.1bn (USD 56mn), translating to a net profit of 3.4 kopecks per share. Therefore, if we anticipate that the bank can earn a profit of 10 kopecks per share this year, it could provide significant upside for the BAVL stock. In the previous year, the bank recorded a modest profit of UAH 1.6bn (2.6 kopecks per share).

Among other stocks of Ukrainian issuers, notable growth of indicative quotes by 20% to 4.80 UAH was observed for CentEnergo (CEEN), but the actual trading volumes were minimal.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Zelenskiy, Scholz Showcase Improved Ties Despite Fighter Jet Refusal

- Ukraine’s Headline Inflation Slows to 17.9% in April from Peak of 26.6% Seen in December

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]




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