Most of the Ukrainian equities were lower over the week, with a notable drop of 14% to UAH 5.30 per share recorded for CentrEnergo (CEEN). It is worth noting that several targeted orders for CentrEnergo shares, totaling UAH 1.4mn, were executed precisely at the price of UAH 5.30. Meanwhile, Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) shares remained unchanged at 30 kopecks.
In the agricultural sector, the following dynamics were observed during the week: Kernel (KER) lost 6.7% closing at PLN 15.10, Astarta (AST) decreased by 4.0% to PLN 30.85, while MHP (MHPC) saw a modest increase of 0.5% to reach USD 3.77.
Despite a slowdown in May’s inflation to 15.3% on an annual basis, the National Bank of Ukraine decided to maintain the key policy rate at 25% last Thursday. It seems that the central bank aims to maintain predictability and thus refrains from making changes to the monetary policy amid the persistently challenging economic situation in the country. Four more NBU policy board meetings are scheduled by the end of the year, with the next one taking place on July 27. In our view, a rate cut is unlikely to occur before September.
Foreign stock indices experienced noticeable growth during the week following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the key rate unchanged at 5.25%. The pause in the cycle of interest rate hikes in the US may indicate progress in curbing inflation. The S&P 500 broad market index rose by 2.8% to 4,409 points. Year-to-date growth has already reached nearly 15%. From a technical analysis standpoint, a significant resistance level for the S&P 500 is expected at 4,550 points, increasing the likelihood of a return to the downtrend that began in early 2022 when the index reached its all-time high of 4,796 points.
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