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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 31 July 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The UX index rose by 3.2% to 1,658 points last week while there was almost no turnover in major locally-listed stocks. In particular, CentrEnego (CEEN) added by 4.0% to UAH 5.47 per share with no trades reported for the five sessions in a row. Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) was unchanged at 30 kopecks and TurboAtom (TATM) surged by 10% to UAH 4.00.

In London trading, iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) slipped by GBp 91 (MCap USD 703mn) and MHP (MHPC) was flat at USD 3.60 (MCap USD 385mn).

Warsaw-listed Ukrainian names were mixed. Kernel (KER) rebounded by 6.0% to PLN 13.55 after steep losses over previous weeks. Astarta (AST) dropped by 6.4% to PLN 31.10.

On the cash market, the dollar rose by 1.1% to 37.55 UAH/USD. The euro gained 1.0% to 41.95 UAH/EUR. Over the week, the National Bank sold USD 350mn from reserves in the interbank market, compared to the USD 590mn sold the previous week. Since the beginning of the year, the NBU has already sold USD 14.3bn.

There is some uncertainty regarding the prospects of effective agricultural exports after Russia’s exit from the grain agreement. However, Ukraine can explore alternative routes to export up to 5mn tonnes per month: up to 3mn tonnes through the Danube ports, with the railway having already exported 1.2mn tonnes in certain months, and the remaining up to 0.8mn tonnes via road transport. These capacities should be sufficient, even considering monthly peak fluctuations.

While global grain supplies seem to be stable for now, global markets saw the price of grain rise by 8% within a day of russia pulling out of the grain deal. Despite the lack of a pulse, Turkey - one of the main brokers of the grain deal along with the United Nations - is still hopeful it can be resuscitated.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- National Bank Cuts Key Policy Rate from 25% to 22% as Inflation Slows to 12.8%

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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