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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 28 August 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ferrexpo (FXPO) stock on the London Stock Exchange has approached its lowest point since 2016. The FXPO quotes have been on a steep descent since mid-January, plummeting from GBp 175 to the current value of GBp 76, marking a substantial decline of 57%. The company’s MCap now stands at USD 576mn. The undervaluation of Ferrexpo is accentuated by the fact that during the pre-war year of 2021, the company garnered a net profit of USD 870mn. However, this year, the projected profit is a mere USD 80mn. Since its IPO in 2007, Ferrexpo’s share prices have seen a low of GBp 13 in January 2016 and a high of GBp 480 in July 2021. Bearing in mind the complexities associated with iron ore export logistics from Ukraine, as well as certain corporate risks tied to Ferrexpo’s major shareholder, who is currently under investigation in the Finance and Credit bank case, there could be a conclusion that FXPO stock upside is limited.

On the Ukrainian Exchange, quotes for the index basket stocks remain largely unchanged. The range for Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) stands at 26 - 29 kopecks (bid/ask). As for CentrEnergo (CEEN), the indicative range is UAH 4.00 - UAH 4.80. The company has announced plans to import coal from Poland at a volume of 80,000 tonnes per month to navigate the autumn-winter period of 2023/2024.

In the case of Kernel (KER) shares, there has been a 15% weekly drop to PLN 11.75 due to the company’s announcement of an additional share issuance, potentially diluting the stake of minority shareholders who choose not to participate in this issuance.

In the cash foreign exchange market, the dollar rate has ascended by 1.2%, reaching a level of 38.40 UAH/USD. Meanwhile, the euro rate has risen by 0.4% to 41.90 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine Posts Gains in South; Tokmak Looms as Key Target of Counteroffensive

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

- Raiffeisen Bank’s Net Profit Jumps Five Fold to UAH 3.12bn in 1H23 (EPS of 5.07 kopecks)

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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