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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 18 September 2023

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The National Bank has cut the benchmark interest rate from 22% to 20%. This decision was made on September 15th. The primary rationale for the rate cut was the slowing consumer inflation, which stood at 8.6% YoY in August. This suggests that given the current inflation rate, interest rates on hryvnia-denominated assets appear quite attractive. Specifically, the Ministry of Finance is offering a yield of 17.8% on the 1-year government bonds at primary auctions. Deposit rates in major Ukrainian banks for one year currently stand at 15%. The next meeting of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Board will take place on October 26th, with another scheduled for December 14th. At this point, there are expectations that the benchmark interest rate will be further reduced to 18% by the end of the year.

On the Ukrainian Exchange, quotes for major stocks remain unchanged. CentrEnergo (CEEN) shares have an indicative price of UAH 5.5. Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) quotes are at 27 kopecks.

Among Ukrainian agricultural company stocks, the performance were mostly negative. MHP (MHPC) shares lost 3.6% and traded at USD 3.49. Kernel (KER) experienced a further decline of 15% to PLN 6.34.

On global stock market, the main event was the IPO of the British company ARM, a leading microprocessor developer. ARM Holdings’ IPO on the NASDAQ exchange was the world’s largest this year. Investors valued ARM at nearly USD 55bn. A total of 10% of ARM’s shares were listed on the exchange. ARM’s market capitalization surged 25% in the first two trading sessions, reflecting heightened investor interest in the microprocessor sector due to the development of artificial intelligence technologies, which consume significant computing power. ARM’s high valuation underscores that the P/E multiple reached approximately 100x, with a price-to-revenue multiple of 20x. Overall, these high multiples indicate optimism among investors about the rapid growth in demand for microprocessors.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine’s National Budget for 2024 Includes USD 42bn Security & Defense Expenses (Equivalent of 22% of GDP)

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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