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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 5 February 2024

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The Ukrainian Exchange index lost 5.1% over the week due to a 9.1% decline in CentrEnergo’s (CEEN) stock to UAH 4.00. Additionally, Raiffeisen Bank (BAVL) experienced a noticeable decrease of 7.7% to 30 kopecks per share, attributed to the bank’s net profit figures of UAH 5.2bn (USD 140mn) for 2023 being worse than forecasted. Consequently, Raiffeisen Bank’s net profit per share amounted to 8.46 kopecks. The estimated P/E ratio is 3.5x, and the P/B ratio is 0.8x. At a price of 30 kopecks per share, the current market capitalization of Raiffeisen Bank is USD 485mn.

Among Ukrainian agro companies traded on foreign exchanges, Astarta (AST) demonstrated a 2.5% increase to PLN 32.20 (MCap of USD 196mn). Meanwhile, MHP (MHPC) decreased by 2.1% to USD 3.31 (MCap of USD 354mn).

Iron ore producer Ferrexpo (FXPO) gained by 3.4% to GBp 88.8 (MCap of USD 669mn) despite a downward move in the benchmark 62% Fe iron ore price to USD 128 per tonne.

Overall, global stock exchanges maintain a certain level of optimism, reflected in the 1.4% rise of the S&P 500 index and a 1.0% increase in the MSCI Global index for the week. Microsoft, the world’s largest company by market capitalization, gained 2.0% for the week and has grown by 9.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching a valuation of USD 3.1 trillion. In comparison, Apple’s shares lost 3.9% year-to-date, with a current market capitalization of USD 2.9 trillion.

The financial markets are at the crossroad after a robust U.S. jobs report and comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prompted a plunge in the odds of an interest rate cut in March. Investors are now pricing in only a 15% probability that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting in March.

On the interbank market, the hryvnia is trading at 37.56 UAH/USD. The cash exchange rate stands at 38.05 UAH/USD (-0.4% w/w).

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Ukraine’s Public Debt Increases by USD 34bn in 2023 to USD 145bn, Implying 84% Debt/GDP Ratio

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua


full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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