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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 18 March 2024

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

The MSCI Global index lost 0.5% over the past week, with the S&P500 index showing only a slight decline of 0.1%. This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will convene for its regular monetary policy meeting, but the consensus forecast suggests that the key rate will remain unchanged within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. However, with U.S. inflation decreasing to 3.2% as of February, there are expectations for a period of lower interest rates from the Fed starting from June. The U.S. central bank aims to bring inflation down to 2% and thus maintains a tight monetary policy for now. However, another challenge to slowing inflation could arise from further increases in oil prices, as well as a potential reversal in grain prices after a period of decline since the second half of 2022. Over the last 12 months, global wheat prices have fallen by approximately 25%, while corn prices have dropped by 30%.

Among the most notable American stocks there has been a mixed performance this year. Tesla dropped by 32% over the last three months, while Apple fell by 10%. In contrast, Microsoft gained 11%, while NVIDIA soared by 80% to USD 2.2tr, despite the company’s revenue totaling only USD 61bn over the past year. NVIDIA’s trailing P/E stands at 74x, while the projected P/E for this year is 36x.

For most stocks of Ukrainian companies traded on exchanges, the beginning of this year has been negative. Ferrexpo’s market capitalization fell by 44% to USD 384mn due to the company’s issues related to the freezing of accounts at Poltava GOK. A court decision to freeze the company’s accounts was made at the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office as part of a case regarding the company’s alleged evasion of royalty payments.

On the Ukrainian Exchange, shares of Raiffeisen Bank have lost 20% since the beginning of the year, with their current price at 26 kopecks (MCap of USD 403mn).

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Macron Takes Lead on Western Support for Ukraine as US Falters

- National Bank Moves Forward with 50 bps Key Rate Cut to 14.5%

The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Please find more at the National Bank’s official website under the link below:

www.bank.gov.ua

                           

full report


                           

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]


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