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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 12 May 2025

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

Ukrainian Stocks Post Mixed Week as Ferrexpo Tumbles on Diminishing Speculation

Ukrainian equities listed on foreign exchanges ended last week with mixed performance. Iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) slumped 20% to GBp 62.10, valuing the company at USD 494mn, amid fading speculative interest following the Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal, which failed to provide clarity on potential near-term American investment inflows. Ukraine sees the deal as a way to ensure that its biggest and most consequential ally stays engaged and doesn’t freeze military support, which has been key in its 3-year-old fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion. The deal covers minerals, including rare earth elements, but also other valuable resources, including oil and natural gas, according to the text released by Ukraine’s government. It does not include resources that are already a source of revenue for the Ukrainian state. In other words, any profits under the deal are dependent on the success of new investments. The text of the deal lists 55 minerals but says more can be agreed to.

The industry’s potential is unclear since geological data is thin because mineral reserves are scattered across Ukraine, and existing studies are considered largely inadequate. In general, however, the outlook for Ukrainian natural resources is promising. The country’s reserves of titanium, a key component for the aerospace, medical and automotive industries, are believed to be among Europe’s largest.

Agricultural producer Astarta (AST) rose 8.1% to a new local high of PLN 60.00, lifting its market cap to USD 389mn.

Shares of MHP (MHPC) were flat at USD 5.42, maintaining a valuation of USD 580mn.

Grain exporter Kernel (KER) declined by 0.5% to PLN 19.40 (MCap of USD 1.51bn).

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- The Great Capital Rotation: Investors Shift From U.S. to Europe in Historic Move

full report


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