Ukrainian Stocks Listed Abroad Trade Mixed Amid Grain Forecast Downgrade
Shares of Ukrainian companies listed on foreign exchanges posted another week of mixed performance, as shifting agricultural forecasts and market speculation continued to shape investor sentiment.
Dairy producer Milkiland (MLK) rose 5.8% to PLN 2.0 on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, lifting its market capitalization to USD 17mn. Meanwhile, Astarta (AST), one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, dropped 4.9% to PLN 50.3, trimming its valuation to USD 336mn.
The declines came as Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy cut its grain harvest forecast by nearly 10% YoY to 51mn tonnes, down from 56.7mn tonnes in 2024. Military risks remain a key drag on output, with farmers either unable or unwilling to plant and harvest due to ongoing conflict. Large swaths of farmland are also either occupied or land-mined, further hampering agricultural production. Despite the outlook, the agrarian sector continues to serve as a vital source of foreign currency inflows. Grain exports are expected to reach 41mn tonnes this season, including up to 16mn tonnes of wheat.
Shares of Kernel (KER), Ukraine’s top agricultural exporter, rose 2.7% to PLN 18.0, valuing the company at USD 1.45bn. The stock has proven resilient, despite sector headwinds, though recent performance has been heavily influenced by investor speculation over whether the company will proceed with a forced buyout. Kernel’s majority shareholder increased its stake to 95% earlier this year, fueling uncertainty over next steps.
Globally, equity markets continued to rally, with the MSCI Global Index gaining 0.7% on the week amid a wave of risk-on trading. Hopes are mounting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle that could extend into late 2026. Still, signs of reaccelerating inflation in the U.S. are emerging, driven in part by new import tariffs. That could dampen consumer sentiment and threaten the momentum of the world’s largest economy.
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