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Среда, 26 декабря 2018

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital
Прогнозируемое настроение рынка: Нейтрально
Индекс UX по итогам дня: 1705,040%

This is the final issue of the Ukraine Market Monitor for 2018.

We at Eavex Capital extend our Greetings to you for the New Year holidays!

Weekly coverage will resume on Jan. 8.


Ukraine’s domestic equity market had no reaction to news last week that the IMF approved a new USD 3.9bn support program for the country. Nevertheless, Kyiv-listed stocks finished the year with solid gains, with the broad 20-stock PFTS index rising by 76% over the year. The 5-stock UX index added 25% to 1,705 points over the year. Surprisingly, one of the best performing local stock was DonbasEnergo (DOEN), which has jumped 70% YtD to UAH 31.00 per share as the company reported outstanding improvements in its financial results. DonbasEnergo’s close peer CentrEnergo (CEEN) added 22% this year to UAH 15.00 but still remains below its fair fundamental value, as the company remains stuck with the government’s ineffective management. The privatization auction for CentrEnergo scheduled for Dec 13 was cancelled, although the IMF continues to insist that the state stake of 78% in CentrEnergo should be sold off.

Shares of Ukraine’s flagship oil producer UkrNafta (UNAF) decreased in value by 3.7% YtD to UAH 130, amid the company’s unresolved problem with UAH 11bn in tax debt as well as the recent slump in oil prices.

London-listed Ukrainian names demonstrated a mixed performance for the year. Ferrexpo (FXPO) is ending with a 32% decline at the resistance level of GBp 200 per share. Infrequently-traded MHP (MHPC) edged down by 8.7% YtD to USD 10.50 despite the company continuing to expand its poultry export business. On the positive side, Regal Petroleum (RPT) surged by 5.3x YtD  to GBp 51.25 as the company’s prospects improved on higher estimates of its gas reserves.

The hryvnia managed to stay firm over the year (barring any surprises in the next few days), finishing higher by 2.6% against the dollar at 27.40 UAH/USD. We have estimated the average UAH/USD rate over all of 2018 at 27.20 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Zelenskiy Presents Rising Threat to Poroshenko Reelection

- Ukraine Receives USD 1.4bn IMF Tranche Amid New Downsized Deal

- Ukraine’s GDP Grows for 11th Straight Quarter with 2.8% YoY Rise in 3Q18

full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, a.klymchuk@eavex.com.ua
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, d.churin@eavex.com.ua

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